Podcast: US Election - Minority report

The long US election campaign kicks off in the next two weeks with Republican caucuses in Iowa and primaries in New Hampshire. Since 1988, only one Republican candidate - George W. Bush in 2004 - has won the popular vote yet he and Donald Trump secured the presidency in 2000 and 2016 by winning the electoral college. If he is the nominee this year, Trump will almost certainly lose the popular vote for a third time but could still win a second term if he can dislodge some swing states - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Nevada - from Biden's 2020 tally.

Medley Advisors have built a model to predict the outcomes in these and other swing states based on state, local and national data. Since county-level demographic data are unavailable for Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and demographic projections are limited, Medley has focused for now on Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina and will use these to forecast outcomes in the presidential and Congressional races in other states.

On this podcast, macro analyst Madelynn Einhorn talks to Tim Jones, who oversees Medley's political coverage, about the model and what it already tells us.