Argentina's return to uninvestability began in 2019 after Mauricio Macri's reformist presidency came to an effective end with the mid-year primary elections and markets priced in a return of protectionist, fiscally unorthodox and inflationary Kirchnerism.
With the 2023 primaries looming on 13 August, Kirchnerism is on the backfoot and investability is back on the agenda. Yet, this is still Argentina. Will one of Macri's conservative successors - Horacio Rodríguez Larreta or Patricia Bullrich - qualify for the 22 October presidential election against the incumbents' choice Sergio Massa? Or is it possible that libertarian Javier Milei will slip through and risk either an isolated presidency without a congressional majority or continued Kirchnerism albeit under Massa's moderate leadership?
Ignacio Labaqui, Medley's Argentina analyst, discusses primaries, presidential elections, and market risks with Fernando Posadas, the head of the Latin America practice.
